Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 3.049182 3.675305 4.377007 5.218625 6.197393 7.296417 8.620377
2025-04-06 2.144868 2.932952 3.912610 5.207248 6.858889 8.879988 11.522761
2025-04-13 1.579461 2.411441 3.541924 5.162004 7.390588 10.310441 14.379554
2025-04-20 1.302448 2.184238 3.475291 5.452670 8.342374 12.337516 18.186488
2025-04-27 1.077484 1.969396 3.366508 5.636336 9.132907 14.195052 21.921518
2025-05-04 0.927060 1.831439 3.336024 5.910183 10.060035 16.308240 26.185204
2025-05-11 0.757633 1.619199 3.141483 5.881805 10.498606 17.715767 29.509561
2025-05-18 0.597805 1.384616 2.861938 5.659202 10.579932 18.556863 32.013662
2025-05-25 0.466735 1.172417 2.580102 5.380939 10.518050 19.140014 34.129673
2025-06-01 0.390288 1.054533 2.452679 5.357736 10.881575 20.431695 37.463856
2025-06-08 0.333105 0.964978 2.364211 5.391376 11.341828 21.911879 41.203701
2025-06-15 0.281750 0.875706 2.259299 5.374196 11.698633 23.230814 44.750496
2025-06-22 0.222514 0.751165 2.057100 5.134131 11.614690 23.783027 47.056622
2025-06-29 0.187931 0.683029 1.971067 5.128564 11.991368 25.203420 51.006098
2025-07-06 0.157257 0.616456 1.875339 5.085924 12.284786 26.487431 54.794238
2025-07-13 0.145981 0.606594 1.920734 5.373635 13.297825 29.217803 61.426195
2025-07-20 0.131485 0.581687 1.921802 5.555269 14.098838 31.589822 67.528778
2025-07-27 0.121759 0.570301 1.957555 5.825807 15.119340 34.464356 74.756268
2025-08-03 0.103645 0.521918 1.879153 5.797818 15.465412 36.002383 79.490455
2025-08-10 0.083280 0.456328 1.735523 5.577999 15.344875 36.569674 82.348495
2025-08-17 0.065402 0.392427 1.581288 5.303222 15.060323 36.764182 84.462873
2025-08-24 0.055718 0.360342 1.521674 5.280312 15.378822 38.260120 89.293947
2025-08-31 0.048428 0.336292 1.483700 5.313531 15.838634 40.092000 94.917589